I looked at the two ships involved in the fight. The BS does about 10k a volley in base damage every 20s. Depending on the server generated number discussed in previous comments (0 to 1) that will yield least 10k*0,5 and 10k*1,5 at the most (see here for more info). The fight is in 0.6 space so CONCORD will show up in about 25 sec. So the BS will at max land 2 shots (or 3 but I don't think it will survive CONCORD for 20s) doing about at least 10k damage and at most 30k minus the resistance of the other ship.
Now to the tracking department. I got a tracking speed of 0,0158rad/sec in EveHQ with the BS fit and max skills. If the BS sits at 30km from target then he is within the optimal range of his turrets and therefore we will only be interested in the sig radius, sig res, tracking speed and angular velocity if we trust this formula.
The signature radius is 150m for the T3 and the signature resolution is 400m for the BS turrets. So now we are only left thinking about the angular velocity (the tracking speed was 0,0158rad/sec). Angular velocity will be 0 at first because the T3 will head at max speed towards the BS (so the transversal velocity is 0 and the angular velocity=trans/distance). If we could we would like the T3 at a perpendicular direction at full speed instead (231m/s for the T3 in EveHQ). At max speed the hit rate is about 30%, also minimizing the damage to max 130% of base volley damage. Reaching this max speed in the perpendicular direction will require slowing down and then speeding up or more slowly turning the ship around. I don't know how to calculate the optimal road and time for this but it takes about 10 sec for the T3 to accelerate to 200m/s (40% hit chance) from 0m/s and just about as long to decelerate.
Here you got the hit chance 0 (0%) to 1 (100%) for the BS killing the T3 at 30km range and with the T3 at speeds from 0m/s to 231m/s in a perpendicular direction.

Go to this website and enter "plot y=0.5^(((v/(30000*0.0158))*(400/150))^2), v=0...231"
But what probably happened was that the T3 tried to warp which resulted in it not taking a perpendicular direction and was like a sitting duck at 30k generating a near 100% hit chance for the 2 shots. If it would have gone for the perpendicular road and with a bit of luck the T3 might have made it until CONCORD saved the day.